If trends continue, Austin area 'very likely' to shift to Stage 3 next week, health chief says

Austin American-Statesman - 10/8/2021

The Austin area's public health chief on Friday said if trends keep improving, the community could move back to Stage 3 pandemic guidelines by early next week — but not in time for those wanting to unmask while belting out the lyrics to hit songs by headliners like Billie Eilish and Duran Duran.

Austin City Limits attendees who are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus will still be required to wear masks in public this weekend after Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County health authority, decided to wait a few more days before loosening pandemic restrictions.

More: Austin-area COVID data for October show pivotal improvements in hospitalizations, vaccinations

Four cases of COVID-19 were confirmed among ACL attendees during the first weekend of shows, according to Walkes. The public health leader said she's hopeful cases will remain low if festival goers continue to follow the rules, wear masks and keep socially distant during the event.

"If the trend continues, it's very likely that will happen," Walkes said about moving to Stage 3. "It all depends on us. It all depends on community action and community-driven response to this pandemic, it always has been. We're hopeful. We're confident. We've done it before and we will do it again."

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Only 17 patients were newly admitted to the hospital Friday for COVID-19, dropping the rolling seven-day average to 21. Austin Public Health uses the average to determine how the most medically vulnerable can protect against the coronavirus under the agency's risk-based guidelines.

The average of 21 Friday was the lowest since July 15, when it was 22, and was a decline from 30 on Sept. 30.

More: Austin area crosses Stage 3 threshold but health leaders aren't ready to shift guidelines yet

Austin Public Health's risk-based guidelines range from Stage 1 up to Stage 5, which indicates the highest threat level for community spread of the coronavirus. The Austin area is currently in Stage 3 territory, when the rolling average stays between 15 and 29.

However, the area is still technically in Stage 4 until health leaders shift downward to the loosened restrictions.

Under Stage 3 rules, health leaders say it would be safe enough for anyone fully vaccinated to shop and dine indoors and gather outdoors without wearing a mask. Even those who are at high risk for severe symptoms of COVID-19 but are fully vaccinated could safely shop and gather outdoors without a face covering.

More: Austin health official offers last-minute tips on how to avoid COVID infection at ACL Fest

For unvaccinated people, Stage 3 would allow them to safely shop, dine, travel and gather with others both indoors and outdoors if masked. Those at high risk and unvaccinated should only gather, travel, shop and dine if essential and while masked.

However, Walkes on Friday said moving to Stage 3 early next week might come with a few adjustments to the guidelines, adding that any specifics on those changes are still being worked out.

"We're re-evaluating our risk-based guidance and taking into account the situation as it is now," Walkes said, "and what we're anticipating will happen as we look to the impact of unvaccinated folks who may develop COVID-19, or those who are unvaccinated who may develop the flu."

More: Austin returns to Stage 4 after steady decline in COVID-19 cases, health officials say

Austin Public Health was tracking 255 people in the hospital with COVID-19 on Friday, the fourth day that fewer than 300 were in the hospital and a continued improvement over the pandemic record of 653 patients set six weeks ago on Aug. 25.

As many as 105 people were in Austin-area ICUs for COVID-19. That number hit a pandemic record of 237 on Aug. 22. The 75 coronavirus patients on ventilators also were a huge change in the right direction over the pandemic record of 174 set Aug. 29.

As of Friday, 81.36% of Travis County residents 12 and older have received at least one dose of vaccine. About 71.53% of county residents 12 and older are fully vaccinated. (Those younger than 12 are not yet eligible to take the vaccine.)

Statewide, 72.37% of Texans 12 and older have received at least one dose of vaccine. About 62.50% of Texans 12 and older are fully vaccinated.

More: '2 arms, 2 shots': Austin health leaders push for flu, COVID vaccines to free up hospitals

Meanwhile, Texas on Friday recorded 7,004 people in the hospital for COVID-19, extending a streak of declining figures and an improvement after reaching a summer high of 13,932 on Aug. 26.

The pandemic high was 14,218 Texans hospitalized in January.

The Texas Department of State Health Services also reported 503 available staffed ICU beds for adult patients, up from the pandemic low of 270 on Sept. 9. Although the state had only 95 staffed pediatric ICU beds, that is still much more than the pandemic low of 64 beds reported on Aug. 4.

State Health Services' 11-county Central Texas trauma service region that includes the Austin metro area continued to see a critical shortage in available staffed ICU beds, with 34 adult beds and eight pediatric beds available. The region hit a pandemic low of zero adult ICU beds on Sept. 5 and zero pediatric ICU beds on Sept. 4.